🌸 spring awakenings 2026 Singapore
🌦️ ENSO · MJO · warming
La Niña → neutral (by April 2026): The ongoing La Niña will fade over the next 1–2 months. For Singapore, this means a gradual return to near‑normal rainfall patterns. However, the transition itself often brings enhanced convective variability — expect a few intense thunderstorm bursts in March.
MJO spring influence: The Madden‑Julian Oscillation is forecast to activate during Phase 4‑6 (Maritime Continent) in March and again in late April. This boosts widespread rain and squally lines, especially in early March and mid‑April. Chances of MJO‑driven wet spells are ~60% above baseline.
Warming summer precursor: With neutral ENSO and a warming trend across the tropics, May will feel distinctly warmer. Daytime temperatures could frequently reach 34°C, and higher evaporation will feed afternoon convection — short, heavy downpours become more frequent.
🌀 Amihan retreat · inter‑monsoon
Northeast monsoon (Amihan) fades: By late March, the persistent northeasterly winds weaken significantly. The “end of Amihan” is marked by lighter, variable winds and a decrease in regional convergence — but also a rise in localised thunderstorms.
Inter‑monsoon transition (April): April sits in the classic inter‑monsoon gap. Winds become light and directionless, humidity climbs, and solar heating triggers late afternoon & evening storms. This is the most electrically active period — lightning risk increases.
What changes: Compared to early spring, April–May sees more abrupt rain events, with shorter but heavier downpours. The absence of strong steering winds means storms can linger, occasionally causing flash floods.
📊 spring 2026 · selected metrics
Monthly averages (March, April, May) based on ENSO/MJO outlook & climatology
🌬️ surface winds
☔ rain rate (mm/month)
🌀 MJO expectation
🌡️ temperature (°C)
💧 humidity (%)
📌 amihan → inter‑monsoon
NE monsoon fades by late March. April wind light & variable — perfect for localised storms.
🌸 amihan尾声 · inter‑monsoon begins
The northeast monsoon (Amihan) typically weakens after mid‑March. By April, Singapore enters the first inter‑monsoon period — light and fickle winds, high humidity, and peak thunderstorm activity in the afternoon. The charts reflect the drop in wind speed and the rise in moisture, while MJO pulses can amplify rainfall. This spring, the fading La Niña adds a final burst of instability before the neutral regime takes over.
warming summer
on the horizon