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🌤️ PHILIPPINES SPRING 2026 MAR · APR · MAY

North · Central · South — what weather to expect
🌬️ Amihan ends by late March → winds relax
🌊 La Niña departs → neutral ENSO strengthens
🌡️ Warmer SST as summer nears → more convection
🌀 Active MJO enhances rainfall & thunderstorm bursts and modulates Typhoon/Storm creation if active in the area.
🏝️ Guam region early typhoon source → possible late-May storms
⛅ West Central High ridge modulates trades & storm tracks
⛅ Dry Monsoon arrives soon, some areas may be dry and hot
NORTH
⚡ Convection: isolated to scattered PM storms, increasing late spring
MARAPRMAY
🌧️ Precip (mm)4060120
💧 Humidity (%)707275
💨 Wind (km/h)NE 15E 12variable 10
🌡️ Temp (°C)262830
Precip
40–120mm
Humidity
70–75%
Wind
10–15km/h
Temp
26–30°C
Amihan exit lighter winds, warming. MJO can bring 1–2 wet weeks.
West Central High diverts early typhoons away, but Guam lows may brush late May.
CENTRAL
⚡ Increasing organized convection, trade-wind showers, possible heavy MJO
MARAPRMAY
🌧️ Precip (mm)80100150
💧 Humidity (%)757780
💨 Wind (km/h)E 20E 18E 15
🌡️ Temp (°C)272931
Precip
80–150mm
Humidity
75–80%
Wind
15–20km/h
Temp
27–31°C
Neutral ENSO near-normal rainfall, but SST warm + MJO can double May totals.
Guam storms still unlikely, but enhanced easterlies from West Central High.
SOUTH
⚡ Frequent convection, near ITCZ, thunderstorm clusters
MARAPRMAY
🌧️ Precip (mm)120140160
💧 Humidity (%)808283
💨 Wind (km/h)E 10variable 8variable 5
🌡️ Temp (°C)282930
Precip
120–160mm
Humidity
80–83%
Wind
5–10km/h
Temp
28–30°C
Warmer SST + ITCZ → convection all spring. MJO dramatically enhances rainfall.
West Central High less influence; local wind shear may drop.

🌀 CONVECTION DETAILS — North: After Amihan ends, diurnal convection over Cordillera; MJO triggers isolated heavy falls. Central: Sea breeze convergence, afternoon thunderstorms increase in May. South: Persistent ITCZ influence, convection almost daily, occasionally enhanced by equatorial waves.

🌊 MJO & GUAM REGION — Active MJO phases (esp. 3–5) during spring will likely bring 30–50% above-normal rainfall to central and south. The Guam region (west Pacific) becomes a nursery for pre-typhoons; by late May, one or two systems may approach eastern Philippines, steered by the West Central High.

☀️ WEST CENTRAL HIGH BAND — This subtropical ridge sitting east of Luzon strengthens trade winds in April, then shifts north. It suppresses extreme convection in the far north while enhancing easterly flow across Visayas. As it weakens in May, typhoon corridor opens.

📊 Surface summary: warming trend, humidity climbs, winds become more variable from N to S. Neutral ENSO + warming SST = typical spring but with higher energy for storms late in the season.

📋 Spring 2026 – regional aggregates (tables & visual trends)

RegionPrecip (mm) M/A/MHumidity %Wind (km/h)Temp °C
NORTH40 / 60 / 12070→75NE 15 → var 1026→30
CENTRAL80 / 100 / 15075→80E 20 → 1527→31
SOUTH120 / 140 / 16080→83E 10 → var 528→30
📈 Precipitation ramp
North ▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰ 120mm May
Central ▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰ 150mm
South ▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰ 160mm
⬆️ MJO can add 20–40% to monthly totals.
💨 surface wind (km/h) : N ↓15→10   C 20→15   S 10→5
🌡️ temp range: N 26–30°C   C 27–31°C   S 28–30°C
💧 humidity increase: N +5%   C +5%   S +3%
outlook based on ECMWF/GFS analog guidance · factors: Amihan end, La Niña → neutral, warm SST, active MJO, Guam typhoon genesis, West Central High ridge · spring 2026